Here’s why Ethena [ENA] faces selling risk despite undervalued signals

Ethena [$ENA] recorded a 12.82% drop on Thursday, 2 April, when its price slid from $0.0905 to $0.0789. Now, it has bounced back above $0.08 since then. However, at press time, its long-term trend was still bearish.

The MVRV pricing bands use the market value-to-realized value ratio to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. Interestingly, $ENA did not reach the upper extremes of the pricing bands during the crypto bull run.

On top of that, it has been below the lower extremes of the pricing bands since October 2025. The press time market price was $0.08, while the realized price was at $0.373. The percent supply-in-profit metric was 0.018%.

In other words, most $ENA holders appeared to be severely underwater on average.

Time to buy $ENA?

Value investors can make the argument that buying Ethena here can result in outsized gains. However, the associated risk should be considered too.

Especially since Bitcoin [BTC] has been on a downtrend for a while, one that could last another six months.

Over the past month, the holder accumulation ratio has trended south. The metric highlights the proportion of active holders who have been increasing their holdings.

While a reading of 74% indicated a net accumulation from active participants, the short-term sentiment seemed to point towards selling.

Santiment data also underlined this accumulation behavior. The 365-day mean coin age has been trending higher in 2026, though it saw a sizeable reset in early March. Over the past two weeks, the metric has been moving higher to indicate accumulation.

And yet, the network activity metrics highlighted a weakness. The daily active addresses and network growth were hovering around six-month lows. The weak network activity and low holder profitability pointed to a difficult problem for bulls to overcome.

Despite the accumulation clues, it may be overwhelmingly likely that any $ENA price bounces would be aggressively sold off. Holders would want to take profits or exit at breakeven after the relentless downtrend since October 2025.

Final Summary

• On-chain metrics hinted at $ENA accumulation from holders.
• Value investors should be careful since while buying the lows is a good idea on paper, the current downtrend might not be over yet.