Crypto rebounds as oil dips on Trump comments, but derivatives signal weak conviction

Crypto markets rallied on Wednesday as oil momentarily slipped below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Iran will end in “two to three weeks.”

Bitcoin trades at $68,500 having risen by 0.4% since midnight UTC and 3.1% over the past 24 hours, while ether ($ETH) is back at $2,130 after a brief stint below $2,000 last week.

The broader crypto market remains in a downtrend dating back to October, although sentiment has shifted slightly following a period of consolidation between $62,500 and $75,000 since early February.

A selection of altcoins have performed particularly well, notably algorand ($ALGO), which is up by 22% in the past 24 hours as it bounces back from oversold territory.

Derivatives positioning

• The crypto futures market appears to be churning rather than building clear directional positions, as trading volumes have risen 23% to $210 million over the past 24 hours, while open interest has remained broadly stable at around $106 billion.
• Open interest in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures has clearly diverged from $BTC’s recovery from the weekend low of around $65,000. This suggests the rebound is not being driven by a meaningful buildup in leveraged positions, but rather by spot demand or short covering, pointing to a lack of strong conviction behind the move.
• Ether’s OI has risen slightly alongside its spot price, signaling participation from leveraged traders.
• $ETH and $ZEC stand out as major coins with positive OI-adjusted CVD and funding rate. This combination points to aggressive bidding in the futures market, with traders actively opening long positions and paying a premium to maintain them.
• The market for ADA, XMR, BCH and SHIB suggests otherwise.
• Bitcoin and Ether implied volatility indices continue to present a picture of calm.
• On Deribit, risk reversals continue to show a bias for $BTC and $ETH put options, which offer protection against price slides. Bearishness is slightly more pronounced in $BTC options.

Token talk

• The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) was the best performing benchmark on Wednesday, rising by 2.7% since midnight UTC while the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX) are up by 1.5% apiece.
• The bitcoin and major-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) have increased by 0.35% and 0.69% respectively, indicating underperformance against the wider altcoin market.
• Algorand ($ALGO) led the market gains on Wednesday but it was closely followed by decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and JUP, which posted double digit gains.
• A disproportionate rise in open interest for assets like $ETH and $ZEC suggests the recent move has been backed by leverage as opposed to spot buying, which could unwind in news to the contrary of Trump’s statement is released this week.