Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones in March Despite Growing Regulatory Scrutiny

Prediction market transactions surpassed 192 million in March 2026. This represents an all-time record as volume and user growth continued to accelerate year over year.

The figures, tracked by Dune, reflect a sector that has shifted from a niche use case into a multibillion-dollar financial market.

Prediction Market Monthly Transactions. Source: Dune

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The number of monthly users grew to a record high of 865,411, a roughly 118% increase from 396,642 in March 2025.

Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets reached roughly $23.89 billion so far in March, a roughly 1,107% year-over-year increase. Nonetheless, it remains around 10.7% below January’s all-time high of $26.7 billion.

BeInCrypto’s exclusive analysis found that sports, crypto, and politics lead weekly volume on Polymarket. On Kalshi, the exotics category overtook politics in late February to secure a position among the top three categories by weekly volume according to Dune data.

The behavioral data also suggests a structural shift. On Polymarket, over 57% of users trade less than $100 per position.

The average active participant executes roughly 25 trades per day. That frequency mirrors patterns seen in retail stock trading rather than traditional betting.

Despite the growth, prediction markets face increasing regulatory scrutiny. Lawmakers have introduced multiple bills in March alone, ranging from curbing insider trading to banning war-related contracts.

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